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Jakarta (ANTARA News) - The government has projected non-oil/non-gas exports to grow 16 percent at the end of 2010 to US$115 billion from US$87.5 billion the year before, Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu said.

"We use a pessimistic scenario. The year-end growth is projected to reach 16 percent. We have arrived at the figure based on the pattern of monthly non-oil/non-gas exports in 2008 by considering weakening demand in destination countries," she said here on Friday.

Under the optimistic calculation, the 2010 non-oil/non-gas export growth could actually reach 18 percent on assumption that the trend of high export growth could be maintained such was the case with the first semester, she said.

She said the non-oil/non-gas exports were expected to range from US$113 billion to US$115 billion this year. This compared with US$107.8 billion in 2008 and US$97.5 billion in 2009.

The country`s non-oil/non-gas exports in the first seven months of 2010 reached more than US$70 billion.

"We are quite optimistic that we can exceed the level of non-oil/non-gas exports in 2008," she said.

The optimism was based on the performance of non-oil/non-gas exports in July as well as in the January-July 2010 period, she said.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) said earlier the July 2010 non-oil/non-gas exports reached US$10.6 billion, up 29.5 percent from July 2009.

Cumulatively, non-oil/non-gas exports in the year to July 2010 grew 36.9 percent compared to the same period last year.

In the period of August 2009 to July 2010, the non-oil/non-gas exports grew 22.4 percent compared to the previous period.

Despite an expected shortfall in non-oil/non-gas exports in the second semester due to the global economic slowdown, the minister said she believed the non-oil/non-gas exports would remain high.

"Exports are expected to decline because of global economic slowdown led by the United States whose economic recovery runs at a slow pace," she said. (*)

Editor: Heru
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